FEMA estimates how much of every county's building stock the weather destroys in an average year: hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, hail, wildfire, ice. Zillow tracks what homes there are worth. If buyers paid attention to the weather, the riskiest places would appreciate more slowly. Here's whether they do.
Weather risk. FEMA's National Risk Index () models the expected annual loss to buildings in every county from 18 natural hazards. Only the weather ones are summed here: hurricane, coastal and inland flooding, tornado, hail, strong wind, lightning, wildfire, heat wave, drought, winter weather, ice storm, cold wave and landslide. Earthquake, volcano and tsunami are left out. Dividing by the county's total building value gives the share of the building stock the weather is expected to take each year, shown per $10,000. The national figure is about $.
Home values. The Zillow Home Value Index for each county: the typical home, smoothed and seasonally adjusted, through . Change is measured over one, five and ten years, and from the 2022–2026 peak.
What this can and can't say. Home prices move with jobs, interest rates, migration and building. A county can be risky and booming because people want to live there. The comparison shows whether, on balance, riskier counties have been appreciating more slowly. It doesn't show that the weather is why. Rising insurance premiums, the most direct way risk reaches a homeowner's budget, aren't in public county-level data.